About nowling

I am a Realtor with Prudential Starck Realtors.

Sunset on Peck Road

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Sunset on Peck Road

Taken with my phone because I thought the light was stunning.

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So what to make of the coming “wave” of foreclosures locally?

Analysts have shared that the wave of foreclosures is about to crest as a result of the recently announced agreement between the banks and the justice department regarding bank mortgage processing.  The picture is a bit murky in the Tri-Cities and South Elgin.  I’ll attempt to provide some clarity.

 

First, let’s look at the current number of bank-owned homes locally.  When combined, St. Charles, Geneva, Batavia and South Elgin have 176 homes where the lender has already foreclosed and now owns the property.  Not all of these homes are currently for sale because they are at different stages in the foreclosure process. 

 

Second, let’s look at the number of homes where banks have filed “pre-foreclosure” notices.  This is the first step in the foreclosure process and gives us a sense of what may happen in the future.  Pre-foreclosure is constituted by borrowers who have been given notice that if they don’t make payments, they will be foreclosed upon.  Consequently, the vast majority of these borrowers will NOT be foreclosed on but will become current or sell their home.

 

There are 469 homes in the pre-foreclosure stage in the four areas.  St. Charles has the highest number but also the lowest percentage of homes in pre-foreclosure.  South Elgin has the highest percentage of distressed property currently for sale at nearly 20%. 

 

For a list of these distressed properties currently for sale please feel free to email me at snowling@starckrealtors.com.  Let me know if you want data for a specific city.

If we assume that 2/3 of the homeowners become current on their mortgage and no deluge of additional foreclosures are announced, then going forward it appears the percentage of distressed property for sale in St. Charles and Batavia could increase slightly, Geneva would remain flat and South Elgin would increase dramatically.  However, if less than 2/3 of the homeowners currently in default become current all of the markets will see an increase in the percentage of distressed sales.

 This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by Midwest Real Estate Data LLC for the period January 2008 through March 2012. Midwest Real Estate Data LLC does not guarantee nor is it in any was responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by Midwest Real Estate Data LLC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

 

Batavia, Geneva, St. Charles and South Elgin Homes for sale: 1st quarter 2012 results

We have closed the books on the first quarter of 2012 for home sales in the Tri-Cities and South Elgin.  Significant trends are both emerging and continuing!

First, the emerging trend is the pace of sales picked up markedly over the first quarter 2011.  Overall home closings increased in St. Charles, Batavia, Geneva and South Elgin by 23.7% compared to the 1st quarter of 2011.  This statistic is a bit misleading, however, because St. Charles sales increased only 2.8% versus 2011 while Batavia and South Elgin increased the number of units sold by more than 30% and Geneva increased the number of homes sold in the quarter by an eye-popping 62%.  Because St. Charles is a larger market and it lagged the other cities the overall it depressed the rate of increase.

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Not only have closings accelerated, the number of homes under contract at the end of March increased by 35% on average.  St. Charles had 13% more homes under contract, Batavia was up by 25% and Batavia and Geneva increased 78% and 85% respectively.  This indicates an accelerating market.  Significantly, St. Charles in March 2012 had more homes under contract than in any month in the past four years. 

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The unfortunate continuing trend for home sellers is a continued slide in average sale prices.  Geneva bucked this trend with a 13.3% increase in the average price of closed sales.  South Elgin decreased in value on average by 11%, Batavia was down by 9% and St. Charles decreased by 7%.

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This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by Midwest Real Estate Data LLC for the period January 2008 through March. 2012. Midwest Real Estate Data LLC does not guarantee nor is it in any was responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by Midwest Real Estate Data LLC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.